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6 October 2026 International analysis

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Badenoch Rules Out Reform Coalition and Warns Tory Defectors

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has ruled out a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament and warned Tory members they will not be allowed back if they defect to Nigel Farage's party.

Badenoch Rules Out Reform Coalition and Warns Tory Defectors
Kemi Badenoch rules out Reform coalition in event of hung parliament

Kemi Badenoch has ruled out forming a coalition with Reform UK in the event of a hung parliament, and warned Conservative members that they will not be welcomed back if they defect to Nigel Farage's party. The Conservative leader made the commitment during the party's conference, drawing a firm line against any electoral pact with Reform.

Badenoch said she would rather fight two general elections in quick succession than enter a coalition with Reform. Her remarks close down speculation that the Tories might seek a deal with Farage's party if no single party wins a majority at the next election. The statement also serves as a direct message to party members and activists who might be considering a switch to Reform.

The Conservative leader claimed the «volatile» nature of politics means the Tories could still win the next election outright. She insisted the party «will win» and rejected suggestions that the conference in Birmingham was struggling, describing the atmosphere as «buzzing» despite ridicule over empty seats at the event.

Badenoch's intervention comes as Reform UK continues to poll strongly and attract disaffected Conservative voters. By ruling out a coalition and threatening defectors with permanent exclusion, she is attempting to draw a clear dividing line between the two parties and reassert the Conservatives' position as the main opposition force.

The warning to defectors is particularly significant because it removes the option of a return for those who leave. It signals that Badenoch views any move to Reform as a final break rather than a temporary protest. The approach is designed to discourage further defections and to shore up the party's base.

However, the conference has not been without difficulties. Reports of empty seats at the Birmingham gathering have prompted criticism, and Badenoch has had to defend the event's turnout and energy. Her insistence that the party is «buzzing» and will win the next election is part of an effort to project confidence amid challenging polling and internal tensions.

In a separate admission, Badenoch acknowledged that the Conservatives might not be able to restore the state pension triple lock if Labour scraps it before the next election. The triple lock guarantees that the state pension rises by the highest of inflation, average earnings, or 2.5 per cent. If Labour removes or alters the policy, a future Conservative government could find it difficult to bring it back, she suggested.

The comments add to the policy uncertainty facing the party as it prepares for the next general election. Badenoch's leadership is being tested by the rise of Reform, the state of the party's finances and organisation, and the need to present a coherent alternative to Labour. Her refusal to countenance a coalition with Farage is a central part of that strategy.

By taking a hard line on defections and coalitions, Badenoch is seeking to define the Conservatives as a distinct and independent force. Whether that approach can reverse the party's fortunes and deliver the election victory she predicts remains to be seen. For now, the message from the conference is clear: no deal with Reform, and no way back for those who leave.

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Harriet Beaumont

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Staff Reporter

Harriet Beaumont covers public affairs, politics, business, culture and daily news for The Bizzi Route. The role focuses on verification, context, and clear explanations for readers.