Luke Harding: Russia will keep probing Nato with provocations while Putin stays in power for life
The Guardian's Luke Harding answered reader questions on Russia's threat to the West, the war in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin's political future, warning that Moscow will continue hybrid attacks and limited provocations against Nato countries.
The Guardian's international correspondent Luke Harding has told readers that Russia will continue its campaign of sabotage, disinformation and limited military provocations against Nato countries while Vladimir Putin remains in power for life. Answering questions in a live Q&A session, Harding addressed the Kremlin's hostile actions against the UK and EU, the state of the war in Ukraine, and the prospects for political change in Moscow.
Asked why Russia is considered a wider threat when it cannot defeat Ukraine, Harding pointed to Moscow's own framing of the conflict as a war against the «collective west». He listed a series of hostile actions against Western countries, including sabotage of undersea cables, bombs on cargo planes, disinformation campaigns, and support for pro-Russian Eurosceptic parties such as AfD in Germany and Reform in Britain. Last year, Moscow sent a swarm of decoy drones into Poland to probe Nato's defences, he noted.
European leaders remain reluctant to describe these acts as war, preferring the qualifier «hybrid», Harding said. For now, Putin is bogged down in Ukraine, but Russia's diversionary behaviour will continue. He said he would not rule out some kind of military «provocation», probably limited in scope, against a Nato country.
On the question of Putin's health and political longevity, Harding dismissed speculation that the Russian president is sick or dying, calling such hopes «wishful thinking». He said there is little prospect of a palace coup or popular revolution in Russia, and that Putin will stay in power for life. Most people support him, state propaganda remains potent, and the security services keep a close eye on dissent, Harding explained.
Many of those who opposed Putin left the country in 2022, while the majority of those who remain are passive and fatalistic, he said. The fate of Alexey Navalny, who died in a Siberian penal colony in 2024 in circumstances widely attributed to Putin's orders, sent its own grim message to potential opponents, Harding added.
The Q&A session also touched on Harding's own career as a foreign correspondent, including his expulsion from Russia, and his new book examining the relationship between Donald Trump and Putin. The session gave readers the opportunity to ask about the broader implications of Russia's actions for European security and the transatlantic alliance.
Harding's assessment comes at a time when European governments are grappling with how to respond to a sustained campaign of hostile activity that stops short of open conflict. The distinction between hybrid warfare and conventional military action remains a central challenge for Nato planners, as Russia continues to probe the alliance's defences while avoiding a direct confrontation that would trigger Article 5.
