Climate Crisis Drives Tea Production Down and Prices Up, Farmers Warn
Kenyan tea farmers are facing increasingly unpredictable weather, falling yields and rising costs, prompting warnings of a global tea shortage and higher prices as the climate crisis intensifies.
Global tea supplies are under mounting pressure as the climate crisis causes production to plummet and prices to soar, with farmers in key growing regions warning of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, lower crop yields and escalating operational costs. The warnings point to a potential shortage of tea on international markets, with knock-on effects for consumers and producers alike.
In Kenya, one of the world's largest tea exporters, local farmers report that changing weather conditions are making it harder to grow crops of consistent quality and quantity. Erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts and shifting temperatures have disrupted growing cycles, reducing the amount of tea that can be harvested. At the same time, the cost of farming — including fertiliser, labour and energy — has risen sharply, squeezing already thin margins.
The combination of lower output and higher expenses is threatening the livelihoods of thousands of smallholder farmers who depend on tea for their income. According to warnings from farming groups, climate impacts are hitting yields while incomes remain scarce, leaving many producers struggling to make a living. Unfair trade practices in the global supply chain have compounded the problem, meaning that even when prices rise on international markets, the benefits do not always reach those at the base of the supply chain.
The situation in Kenya reflects a broader pattern across tea-growing regions worldwide. Major producers in Asia, including India, Sri Lanka and China, have also faced climate-related disruptions in recent years, from floods and landslides to heatwaves and drought. These events have reduced harvests and raised concerns about the long-term viability of tea as a widely available and affordable commodity.
For consumers in the United Kingdom and other importing countries, the immediate consequence is likely to be higher prices on supermarket shelves. Tea remains one of the most popular drinks in Britain, and any sustained reduction in global supply could feed through to retail costs. Industry analysts warn that if production continues to decline, the market may face genuine shortages, particularly for premium varieties that are more sensitive to climatic conditions.
The warnings come as climate scientists continue to highlight the vulnerability of agriculture to global heating. Tea plants are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall, and even small shifts can affect the flavour, quality and yield of the crop. Farmers in Kenya have described how seasons that were once reliable have become difficult to predict, making it harder to plan harvests and invest in their land.
Efforts to adapt are underway, including the development of drought-resistant tea varieties and improved water management techniques. However, these measures require investment and support that many smallholders lack. Fair trade organisations have called for greater equity in the supply chain, arguing that farmers need a larger share of the final retail price to build resilience against climate shocks.
Without significant action to both cut greenhouse gas emissions and support vulnerable producers, the trend of declining tea production and rising prices is likely to continue. For now, the warning from farmers serves as a stark reminder that the climate crisis is not a distant threat but a present reality affecting the everyday commodities that shape global trade and daily life.
