Labour has moved into first place in a new opinion poll, breaking Reform UK’s 15-month run as the most popular party in Britain. The so-called “Burnham bounce” has seen Labour’s support rise by four percentage points in just days, according to a survey by More in Common, leapfrogging Nigel Farage’s Reform party.
The poll, conducted shortly after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, marks a significant shift in the political landscape. Reform had led consistently since early last year, capitalising on discontent with the previous government. However, the change in leadership appears to have revived Labour’s fortunes, with the party now holding a narrow lead. Exact voting intention figures were not disclosed by the polling firm, but the four-point jump was enough to overturn Reform’s advantage.
Burnham, who took over as Labour leader and Prime Minister following a recent transition, has brought a renewed focus on domestic policy. In a recent statement, he said he could not put a timeline on social care reform but committed to expending political capital on the issue. This pledge may have resonated with voters who have long demanded action on the crisis in care services. The new Prime Minister has also signalled that reforming the NHS and social care will be central to his government’s agenda.
The end of Reform’s polling streak is a setback for Nigel Farage’s party, which had built its appeal on anti-establishment rhetoric and dissatisfaction with mainstream politics. Reform had enjoyed a sustained lead through much of 2024 and into early 2025, often polling above 30 per cent. The new figures suggest that the arrival of a Labour leader with a distinct regional and policy-focused profile may be eroding that support. Farage has yet to comment publicly on the poll.
Political analysts note that the bounce could reflect a honeymoon period for Burnham, who served as Mayor of Greater Manchester before entering Downing Street. His perceived distance from Westminster politics and his track record on devolution may be attracting voters who had drifted to Reform. However, the polling landscape remains volatile, and Labour will need to maintain momentum in the coming weeks. The next electoral tests, including local council contests and by-elections, will show whether the bounce is durable.
The More in Common survey was conducted among a representative sample of British adults. It is the first major poll to show Labour ahead since Burnham became Prime Minister. The result will be welcomed by Labour strategists, who had been concerned about the party’s competitiveness against a resurgent Reform. For now, the “Burnham bounce” has given Labour a fresh opening in a race that had appeared to be slipping away.
